The rumors have been flying for days. And some of them are true!
Another winter storm is taking aim on the Mid-South and Southeast this weekend.
For some, this will be the third winter wallop in two weeks after many wondered if winter would ever come.
Winter had been missing for much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation prior to the start of the new year. However, back-to-back winter storms have since swept through the same areas targeted by this weekend's event.
Forecast models have converged on two swaths of significant wintry precipitation arcing from the Midwest to the Southeast. I've listed them below, along with details on where I see the most noteworthy amounts occurring.
The storm will start like a classic Alberta Clipper system, diving quickly to the south through the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota to Missouri.
Generally speaking, a 24-hour window of light to moderate snow will leave most areas with 2 to 6 inches, but higher amounts of 4 to 8 inches are possible roughly 100 miles either side of a line from Sioux Falls, SD to Kirksville, MO.
The storm will be strengthening as it dives into the Mid-South Saturday night, pulling in more moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.
Confidence is much lower on amounts and location of the heaviest bands as the storm goes through this transition. This will likely result in gaps in heavier snowfall totals across portions of Missouri and Arkansas. The highest totals in these states, potentially up to six inches, will likely occur in the higher terrain of the Ozarks on either side of the state line.
Forecast map on more specific amounts across Mid-South will be available when confidence is high enough to be credible.
Snowfall rates will pick up quickly as the storm matures through the Tennessee Valley Sunday. This is also when a mixture of freezing rain and sleet will overspread northeast Georgia and the Upstate regions of South and North Carolina. North and west of where ice accumulations occur, a swath of 4 to 8 inches of snow is becoming increasingly likely. A consensus of the most reliable forecast data places this 100 miles either side of a line from just east of Memphis to Knoxville in Tennessee, then across the Appalachians from northeast Georgia to Pennsylvania.
Lighter amounts of wintry precipitation will also fall outside of the aforementioned areas, but with lesser confidence in how much. Dry air will lead to a sharp cutoff in snowfall amounts on the northern side of the storm track, whereas the timing of a changeover from rain to frozen precipitation will affect amounts on the southern side.
The "enhanced risk" of severe storms capable of producing a tornado or wind damage has been expanded north to include the greater St. Louis metro area, according to an update from the Storm Prediction Center Friday morning.
Latest forecast data also suggests the storms may form several hours later than originally posted in Missouri and Arkansas. My latest thinking is listed below.
A powerful cold front is expected to develop across the Central Plains Friday, igniting strong storms ahead of it as it encounters an increasingly unstable airmass across the Mid-South Friday night.
The strongest storms will be capable of producing a tornado or damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. The risk is greatest after dark across portions of eastern Arkansas, southeast Missouri, northern Mississippi, and western Kentucky and Tennessee.
Forecast data suggests the first cells might not even develop along the front until after 4 pm CST Friday.
Confidence in this forecast is near average for two days prior to the event. The highest degree of uncertainty exists on the location of storm initiation Friday evening. This will depend on the forward motion of the cold front as it is matures and accelerates over the Ozarks Friday afternoon. Storm coverage may also be a bit disorganized or scattered at times, preventing this from becoming a widespread or larger scale event.
