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- Rare cold front arrives in Florida this weekend.
- Strong storms possible at unusual times of day.
- Also watching the tropics, but development unlikely.
A rare cold front will be arriving in Florida this weekend. It could trigger strong thunderstorms at unusual times of day across parts of the state. Highest chances of the stormy weather will be across extreme north Florida Friday, then sliding into much of central and south Florida Saturday and Sunday.
We are also keeping an eye on the tropics. The National Hurricane Center has outlined an area over The Bay of Campeche in the Southern Gulf of Mexico for possible development starting Sunday. However, at this time, forecast data suggests this feature is not likely to affect Florida.
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A backdoor cold front, one that slides in from the opposite direction it normally comes from, will be nearing the First Coast Friday. It is rare for a system like this to approach from the northeast in June. This is more common in the fall and winter months. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted North Florida for a marginal risk of severe weather Friday and Saturday. Strong thunderstorms are likely to develop Friday evening in southeast Georgia, then steadily march southward into northeast Florida during the overnight hours of Saturday morning. This is not a normal scenario for the summer months, and many residents may be woken up by the noisy weather. The strongest cells will be capable of producing wind damage, frequent lightning and small hail.
As the boundary slides southward, much of Central Florida will be in the firing zone for strong thunderstorm activity on Saturday. Some of these storms could also be strong or severe. The chances for showers and thunderstorms will also be on the rise in South Florida this weekend, but they are not expected to be as widespread or as strong as the activity associated with the front further north.
The probability for tropical development in the southern Gulf of Mexico is low over the next five days. As a tropical wave moves west toward the warm gulf waters over the coming days, conditions could favor a broad area of low pressure to form over the Bay of Campeche. However a ridge of high pressure that develops over the central US will most likely steer the potential system westward over Texas or Mexico early next week. Confidence is high Florida will not be impacted.