The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season has officially begun with two named storms already in the books. Alex was a rare January hurricane and Tropical Storm Bonnie soaked parts of South Carolina and Georgia over the Memorial Day weekend. The remnant moisture and circulation from Bonnie will move offshore of North Carolina on Wednesday.
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No new tropical storm form is expected in the next five days, but we are keeping an eye on unsettled conditions that may develop over the Western Caribbean this weekend. The waters in this region are very warm, plenty of deep tropical moisture is available, and a weak wave of low pressure is forecast to develop near the Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to become more numerous across the southern Gulf of Mexico and could possibly move across the Florida peninsula Sunday or Monday.
It’s not uncommon for a system to develop in this area during the month of June. When one forms, which is about every two years, the westerly winds over North America tend to pull it northward into the Gulf of Mexico. However, it’s also not unusual for forecast data to be a bit overzealous in showing potential development in these areas early in the season. At the very least, many Floridians might have to dodge some downpours this weekend when this disturbed weather arrives.
The rest of the Atlantic Basin is largely quiet and expected to stay that way. A weak wave is moving across the central Atlantic, but water temperatures are presently too cool to support any notable development. The season ends November 30.