[ebs_notification type="alert-info" close="false" ]New: A disturbance in the Atlantic has a high chance of developing into a tropical storm when it moves into the eastern Caribbean this week. Read official information from the National Hurricane Center on Invest 97. [/ebs_notification]
Summer officially ended last week, but the Atlantic Hurricane Season is far from finished. The two are not directly related.
— Jeff Huffman (@HuffmanHeadsUp) September 24, 2016
Large bodies of water warm and cool at a much slower rate than land. The subtle drop in temperature that many Floridians are starting to feel (or will feel soon) does not equate to a significant drop in water temperatures or hurricane activity.
According to the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA, there has been an average of one hurricane and two tropical storms that form every October since 1851. There's a notable shift, however, in where these systems typically develop and track in September versus October.
It's also not uncommon for a major hurricane to develop and make landfall in the U.S. during the month of October. Water temperatures over the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean are usually still very favorable for a tropical cyclone to form or mature, and the more frequent arrival of fronts or troughs of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. can more often allow a tropical storm or hurricane to turn north.