Tropical Storm Ida is lost at sea. Literally. Upper-level winds are too weak to steer it in any direction, so it’s likely to meander in the central Atlantic for days. Keeping with the trends of the past six tropical systems that have originated in this region, Ida will not be a threat to the United States and will struggle with the hostile environmental conditions caused by our current El Nino.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, a non-tropical area of low pressure has formed off the coast of North Carolina and is projected to slowly drift westward. As of Tuesday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center is only giving it a low chance of becoming a subtropical storm in the next five days. Development of this system, should it occur, would be slow and somewhat disorganized. Nonetheless, heavy rain is possible across coastal regions of North and South Carolina by the end of the week.
Just beyond the official five day outlook from the National Hurricane Center, long range forecast data suggests an area of low pressure could form near the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend. Some models even indicates a subtropical or tropical cyclone may form and enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week. While it is too early for specifics, it should be noted that there has been some reasonable agreement and consistently with regards to this idea in the past few forecast cycles. The Florida Public Radio Emergency Network will continue monitoring the situation and provide frequent updates on any future potential developments.