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- 6 to 10” possible along coast, 2 to 6” inland (north of I-4)
- Heaviest near coast at night, inland during day
- Drier air gradually moves in starting Wednesday
It’s not a tropical storm, but the type of rain sure resembles it. And since it’s not moving anywhere fast, the water will really begin to pile up this week. Flood Watches are in effect through Tuesday along the Nature Coast from Cross City to Crystal River, extending north to Hamilton County along the Georgie border. The heavy rain and flood risk will shift west into much of the Florida Panhandle by midweek, with seemingly no end in sight to the wet pattern anytime soon.
Flash Flood and Areal Flood Warnings were posted early Monday morning in the Suwannee River Valley where 4 to 8 inches of rain quickly accumulated overnight.
Flash Flood Warning #Taylor Co. Areal Flood Warning #LaFayette #Suwannee Co. 4 to 8" fell in these areas overnight. pic.twitter.com/nnuYHcbZaZ
— Florida Storms (@FloridaStorms) August 8, 2016
Earlier in the weekend, the rain was heaviest in Levy and Citrus Counties, where between 4 and 6 inches is estimated to have fallen since Saturday.
2-day NOAA rainfall estimates along #NatureCoast: 4-6" (locally up to 8") #CedarKey #Perry #Mayo & #Branford. #flwx pic.twitter.com/Dr7c33QCy3
— Jeff Huffman (@HuffmanHeadsUp) August 8, 2016
A weak area of low pressure connected to a pipeline of tropical moisture is to blame for the ongoing deluge. The center of the swirl came ashore north of Cedar Key Sunday morning, but since steering currents aloft are weak, it will wander around in the vicinity of North Florida for several days. The heaviest rain will fall near and southeast of the center of the low pressure system, where the confluence of tropical moisture and lift in the atmosphere are colocated.
Forecast data suggests that the soggy storm system will begin to drift west by midweek, taking the heavy rain threat with it into the Florida Panhandle. A southwest flow out of the Gulf will continue to keep tropical moisture in place for much of the peninsula, though, aiding in the development of more afternoon thunderstorms with heavy rain. By the end of the week, a drier air mass is expected to move in from the east, resulting in fewer downpours across the peninsula, but the significant rain may continue in the panhandle for several more days.
Customized alerts, including flood warnings from the National Weather Service, and 36 hours of future radar are available on the mobile app Florida Storms.